Craps Money Management
Often, I hear from individuals asking questions about so-called "money management" issues. These questions will range from questions about betting progressions to issues like Kelly betting and risk of ruin. Sometimes, I'll hear from someone who says "Hey Bootlegger! I've just discovered this great new system where you double your bet after every loss until you win. It's cool and you can't lose!"With that in mind, I thought it might be useful to discuss the most common betting progressions in order to let folks identify them when they see one. If you are a progression bettor, you may not want to read this one, because it is in the vein of the FBI's Most Wanted lists: these are systems you don't want to use if you are serious about making money in the casino.
The most common systems are either "up as you lose" systems or the exact opposite, "up as you win" progressions. They have one thing in common, they don't work.
UP AS YOU LOSE SYSTEMS
Martingale: This is the most infamous of these types of systems and they all bear some relationship to it. The premise is simple: you double your bet after each loss until you win, then you start over. A common series would look like this: 1 unit, lose, bet two units, lose, bet four units, lose, bet eight units and so on. If you win, you are one unit ahead for your series and you begin again.The problems with this system should be obvious to anyone. Long losing streaks are not uncommon in any casino game, and when you encounter one (and you will, and it will be just long enough to break you), you will lose everything you have gained. A ten hand losing streak would have your final bet at $2560 if you started with a $5 bet. If you lost it, you would have lost a total of $5115. If you won it, you would have gained $5. You could expect to see about 3 of those losing streaks in ten hours of play at 100 hands per hour (factoring in pushes) in blackjack. They would come nearly as often in other table games, like baccarat, craps or roulette.... Continue